Advancing Climate Solutions Report
Jan. 8, 2024
Advancing Climate Solutions Report
Jan. 8, 2024
Jan. 8, 2024
Emission-reduction markets have the potential to grow rapidly and reach massive size in a world progressing toward net zero. This provides significant opportunities for our Low Carbon Solutions business, which represents an important and attractive element of the company’s plans to profitably grow for many years to come.
Our organization is clear-eyed on the challenges. We also understand the unique and important contributions we can make, and we are embracing the new opportunities.
Our customers, many governments, and others recognize our combination of experience, skills, and capabilities that can meaningfully help reduce the emissions of others.
Our strategy is geared toward ensuring strong returns and value growth as the energy transition progresses.
Today the world generates about 34 billion metric tons of energy-related CO2 emissions per year. Industrial activity, power generation, and commercial transportation together account for 80% of all energy-related CO2 emissions.1 And while electric vehicles are important and get a lot of headlines, it’s worth noting that these sectors account for about eight times the carbon emissions of passenger vehicles each year. We’re focused on these hard-to-decarbonize sectors. They must be tackled for society to reach net zero.
And that’s where our capabilities come in.
Our company manages molecules. It’s what we have done for decades, and it’s where we’re focused today. This work involves technologies for capturing, transporting, and storing molecules; producing hydrogen from other molecules; and sourcing and co-processing lower-carbon-intensity molecules – all of which require the same competitive advantages we’ve built in our traditional businesses. These markets could exceed $6 trillion globally by 2050.3
Government policy plays a key role in building these new markets, especially in the near term.
Most of our activity is focused in the United States, which is being accelerated by incentives in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). We support legislation like the IRA, which provides incentives for companies to be part of the solution. European policy is currently more prescriptive on how emissions must be managed, which limits solutions for the hard-to-decarbonize sectors. At this early stage, supportive policy remains critical to enable emissions reductions, advance technology, and drive scale to improve costs. Ultimately, given the size of the challenge and the costs entailed, a market for emissions reduction will be required to achieve society’s net-zero ambition.
Technology is already playing a critical role, and it’s where we can add real value.
To expand that advantage further, we’re tailoring our approach in any given abatement technology as a function of the following:
As we strive to play a leading role in the energy transition, we’re pursuing more than $20 billion in lower-emission investments from 2022 through 2027, in addition to the approximately $5 billion Denbury acquisition. About 50% of our lower-emission investments are targeted at reducing emissions from operated assets, with the balance going toward reducing the emissions of other companies.
Carbon capture, transportation, and storage is just what the term implies. Once CO₂ is captured at factories or power plants, we transport and inject it into geologic formations thousands of feet below the earth’s surface for safe and secure storage. The injected CO₂ is held in place by thick, impermeable seal rocks.
Carbon capture and storage, on its own or combined with hydrogen production, is one of the few proven technologies that could enable significant CO₂ emission reductions from high-emitting and hard-to-decarbonize sectors. These include power generation, refining, steel, cement, and petrochemicals manufacturing. According to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, carbon capture and storage can capture more than 90% of CO₂ emissions from power plants and industrial facilities.4
Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) see carbon capture and storage as key to reaching global emissions goals.
The IEA NZE report concludes that more than 7.6 billion metric tons per year of CO₂ will need to be captured and stored by 2050 to reach a net-zero future. By comparison, the world’s current capture capacity is about 40 million metric tons of CO₂ per year.5 The agency has also said “reaching net zero will be virtually impossible” without carbon capture and storage.6
The IPCC estimates that the cost of achieving a 2°C outcome would more than double without carbon capture and storage.7
With more than 30 years of experience in carbon capture, we lead the industry in the successful deployment of this technology at scale. We are continuing to develop and expand our capacity for storing CO2 on a long-term basis.
On the U.S. Gulf Coast, we’re building carbon capture and storage infrastructure that will allow industrial customers to work with us to significantly reduce their emissions. We expect the first of our Gulf Coast projects to be operational as soon as 2026.
Because carbon capture and storage projects require geologic space, we continue to add suitable acreage both onshore and offshore, for this use. Building on our long record of successful collaborations with host governments around the world, we are also negotiating to gain access to nationally owned acreage that holds potential for CO₂ storage. We also continue working with the local jurisdictions on the appropriate permitting to sequester CO2, which will be essential to the success of these projects.
Another vital element of establishing a successful business is building a customer base. And in this area, we’re making great progress with customers that include a major fertilizer company, an industrial gas producer, and a leading steel manufacturer:
Our acquisition of Denbury Inc. supports these major projects and opens opportunities for many others along the U.S. Gulf Coast and in other locations.
The acquisition provides ExxonMobil with the largest owned and operated network of CO2 pipelines in the United States. Combining Denbury’s assets and experience with our capabilities significantly expands our ability to profitably help customers reduce their emissions.
Of Denbury’s 1,300 miles of CO2 pipeline, roughly 70% is in the Gulf Coast states of Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi — one of the largest U.S. markets for CO2 reduction and home to some of ExxonMobil’s largest integrated refining and chemical sites. Denbury also brings strategically located CO2 storage sites in this region.
We believe these synergies will drive strong growth and returns for our shareholders. A cost-efficient transportation and storage system accelerates carbon capture and storage deployment for both ExxonMobil and our third-party customers. It supports multiple low-carbon businesses – including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, ammonia, and biofuels.
Ultimately, we continue to see potential, working with others in the industry, to create a carbon capture and storage business with the capacity to reduce emissions across the Gulf Coast by more than 100 million metric tons per year.9 This transaction is part of our efforts to do that at a lower cost and faster pace.
Hydrogen is a zero-carbon energy source that can generate the high temperatures needed to produce steel, cement, and refining and chemical products without carbon dioxide emissions. This means it could serve as an affordable and reliable source of energy for hard-to-decarbonize industrial processes.
In Baytown, Texas, we are developing the world’s largest low-carbon hydrogen production facility. It’s being designed to produce 1 billion standard cubic feet of hydrogen per day, which is equivalent to the energy needed to power 1.5 million homes.13 This single project would represent nearly 10% of the Biden administration’s goal as reflected in the U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap.14 We expect to capture more than 98% of the CO2, or about 7 million metric tons per year, associated with producing this hydrogen. The new plant could supply Gulf Coast industrial customers, as well as our own facilities in the Baytown area, with clean-burning hydrogen fuel for process operations. In addition, tapping into our certified lower-emission natural gas from the Permian Basin should further lower carbon intensity that will be very difficult for others to match. Front-end engineering is underway. Startup is expected as soon as 2028.
These fuels generate less emissions over their life cycle than the traditional fuels they replace. They include biofuels made from renewable sources like plants and waste biomass and synthetics made from hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide. Lower-emission fuels have the high energy density required to move heavy trucks. Renewable diesel can reduce carbon emissions by up to 70% compared to conventional diesel.17 Demand for these fuels is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the aviation, marine, and heavy-duty trucking industries. Our Global Outlook projects almost 9 million oil-equivalent barrels per day of these fuels by 2050, more than four times 2021 levels.
Our Product Solutions business is focused on growing lower-emission fuels by leveraging current technology and infrastructure, while our Low Carbon Solutions business is focused on innovation in the next generation of low-emission fuels which are supported by our other low-carbon businesses like carbon capture and storage.
We’re exploring opportunities to combine biomass-based fuel production with carbon capture and storage, enabling very low- or negative-carbon intensity fuel production. We’re also looking at how we can efficiently transform natural gas into methanol-based fuels. Our existing capability to convert methanol to multiple end-use fuels, such as marine and jet fuel, could enable a range of low- to zero-emissions fuels. Low-emission fuels can utilize existing distribution infrastructure, further enabling their cost-effective deployment.
Lithium is used for the batteries in electric vehicles and portable electronic devices. Batteries account for 80% of global lithium use. Global consumption of lithium was 134,000 tons in 2022, up 41% from 2021, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.20 The International Energy Agency expects demand to keep rising, potentially reaching over 1 million tons by 2040.21
In November, we announced plans to produce lithium carbonate for use in EV battery manufacturing by employing direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology in southern Arkansas. By separating the lithium from deep brine reservoirs using available technologies, we’re working to produce this critical mineral more efficiently and with fewer environmental impacts than traditional hard rock mining. Our existing skills in subsurface exploration, drilling, refining, and chemicals will allow us to bring meaningful scale to this technology and provide auto battery manufacturers with a more reliable, lower-carbon lithium supply option.22
Carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, and lithium are far from the only emission-reduction opportunities in the world. We are always looking for opportunities that fit our strengths and leverage our current capabilities and businesses.
For example, many of our natural gas and LNG customers have significant post-combustion emissions that they’d like to abate. We offer a “one-stop shop” for CO2 capture, transportation, and storage that will enable these customers to reduce their emissions.
We’re working to accelerate the world’s paths to net zero. We’re building on our technology, scale, project execution, and integration advantages to establish a compelling new business. We’re leading now with real-world projects moving into execution, and a pipeline of future opportunities. We believe this new business complements our existing businesses and will underpin the corporation’s future growth and returns for decades to come.
FOOTNOTES:
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT WARNING
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT RELEVANT TO FORWARD LOOKING INFORMATION FOR THE PURPOSE OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 AND OTHER IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMERS
Images or statements of future ambitions, plans, goals, events, projects, projections, opportunities, or conditions in the publications, including plans to reduce, abate, avoid or enable avoidance of emissions or reduce emissions intensity, sensitivity analyses, expectations, estimates, the development of future technologies, business plans, and sustainability efforts are dependent on future market factors, such as customer demand, continued technological progress, policy support and timely rule-making or continuation of government incentives and funding, and represent forward-looking statements. Similarly, emission-reduction roadmaps to drive toward net zero and similar roadmaps for emerging technologies and markets, and water management roadmaps to reduce freshwater intake and/or manage disposal, are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future corporate, market or industry performance or outcomes for society and are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control or are even unknown.
Actual future results, including the achievement of ambitions to reach Scope 1 and 2 net zero from operated assets by 2050, to reach Scope 1 and 2 net zero in Upstream Permian Basin unconventional operated assets by 2030, to eliminate routine flaring in-line with World Bank Zero Routine Flaring, to reach near zero methane emissions from operated assets and other methane initiatives, to meet greenhouse gas emission reduction plans or goals, divestment and start-up plans, and associated project plans; technology advances including in the timing and outcome of projects to capture and store CO2 supply lower-emission fuels, produce hydrogen, produce lithium, obtain data on detection, measurement and quantification of emissions including reporting of that data or updates to previous estimates, and use plastic waste as feedstock for advanced recycling; progress in sustainability focus areas; and reserve or resource changes could vary depending on changes in supply and demand and other market factors affecting future prices of oil, gas, petrochemical or new market products and services; future cash flows; our ability to execute operational objectives on a timely and successful basis; policy and consumer support for emission-reduction and other advanced products and technology; changes in international treaties, laws, regulations and incentives, including those greenhouse gas emissions, plastics, carbon storage and carbon costs; evolving reporting standards for these topics and evolving measurement standards for reported data; trade patterns and the development and enforcement of local, national and regional mandates; unforeseen technical or operational difficulties; the outcome of research efforts and future technology developments, including the ability to scale projects and technologies such as electrification of operations, advanced recycling, CCS, hydrogen production, or direct lithium extraction on a commercially competitive basis; availability of feedstocks for lower-emission fuels, hydrogen, or advanced recycling; changes in the relative energy mix across activities and geographies; the actions of competitors; changes in regional and global economic growth rates and consumer preferences; actions taken by governments and consumers resulting from a pandemic; changes in population growth, economic development or migration patterns; military build-ups, armed conflicts, or terrorism; and other factors discussed in this release and in Item 1A. “Risk Factors” in ExxonMobil’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2022 and subsequent Quarterly Reports on Forms 10-Q, as well as under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” on the Investors page of ExxonMobil’s website at www.exxonmobil.com. The Advancing Climate Solutions Report includes 2022 greenhouse gas emissions performance data and Scope 3 Category 11 estimates for full-year 2022 as of March 1, 2023. The greenhouse gas intensity and greenhouse gas emission estimates include Scope 2 market-based emissions. The Sustainability Report, the Advancing Climate Solutions Report, and corresponding Executive Summaries were issued on Jan. 8, 2024. The content and data referenced in these publications focus primarily on our operations from Jan. 1, 2022 – Dec. 31, 2022, unless otherwise indicated. Information regarding some known events or activities in 2023 are also included. No party should place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates of these publications. All forward-looking statements are based on management’s knowledge and reasonable expectations at the time of publication. We do not undertake to provide any further updates or changes to any data or forward-looking statements in these publications. Neither future distribution of this material nor the continued availability of this material in archive form on our website should be deemed to constitute an update or re-affirmation of these figures or statements as of any future date. Any future update will be provided only through a public disclosure indicating that fact.
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Actions needed to advance ExxonMobil’s 2030 greenhouse gas emission-reductions plans are incorporated into its medium-term business plans, which are updated annually. The reference case for planning beyond 2030 is based on the Company’s Global Outlook research and publication. The Global Outlook is reflective of the existing global policy environment and an assumption of increasing policy stringency and technology improvement to 2050. However, the Global Outlook does not attempt to project the degree of required future policy and technology advancement and deployment for the world, or ExxonMobil, to meet net zero by 2050. As future policies and technology advancements emerge, they will be incorporated into the GIobal Outlook, and the Company’s business plans will be updated as appropriate. References to projects or opportunities may not reflect investment decisions made by the corporation or its affiliates. Individual projects or opportunities may advance based on a number of factors, including availability of supportive policy, permitting, technological advancement for cost-effective abatement, insights from the company planning process, and alignment with our partners and other stakeholders. Capital investment guidance in lower-emission investments is based on our corporate plan; however, actual investment levels will be subject to the availability of the opportunity set, public policy support, other factors, and focused on returns.
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SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION FOR NON-GAAP AND OTHER MEASURES
The Resiliency section of the Advancing Climate Solutions Report mentions modeled operating cash flow in comparing different businesses over time in a future scenario. Historic operating cash flow is defined as net income, plus depreciation, depletion and amortization for consolidated and equity companies, plus noncash adjustments related to asset retirement obligations plus proceeds from asset sales. The Company’s long-term portfolio modeling estimates operating cash flow as revenue or margins less cash expenses, taxes and abandonment expenditures plus proceeds from asset sales before portfolio capital expenditures. The Company believes this measure can be helpful in assessing the resiliency of the business to generate cash from different potential future markets. The performance data presented in the Advancing Climate Solutions Report and Sustainability Report, including on emissions, is not financial data and is not GAAP data.